HVAC Equipment Shortages Due To COVID-19 Pandemic Create Chaos

HVAC equipment shortage

There’s a significant shortage of HVAC equipment needed to replace our customers’ current systems.  In some areas, if you were to sell a new system to a family, there’s a chance that order with your distributor can’t be completely fulfilled.  And I’m going to talk about why.

Nobody thought in March or April of 2020 when we were all sitting at home following Stay At Home orders that our industry, primarily residential HVAC, would see a 30% to 60% uptick in business through the summer months of 2020.

May, June and July were months that our company, as well as almost every other contractor I’ve talked to, saw record sales, especially in the equipment replacement area.  I’ve talked to some contractors in other parts of the country that haven’t seen this increase in sales, but it’s been few and far between.

To get some answers as to why this shortage has occurred, I asked a couple of industry professionals in my area to give me their thoughts.  I wanted to know what other contractors are doing about it, and when we can expect our warehouses to get back to normal levels of equipment inventory.

Why has the HVAC Equipment Shortage Occurred?

COVID-19 affected all manufacturers in one way or another.  Some manufacturers were hit earlier than others due to outbreaks in their facilities, forcing them to abide by CDC regulations and shut down for two weeks at a time.  It slowed down production to a near halt.

One industry professional told me, “Everyone felt the effects when the raw materials used to build our equipment became unavailable.  Theses included things like control boards from India, motors, and controls from China, raw steel, raw aluminum, and copper from various parts of the world.”

“When something like COVID interrupts any part of the supply chain system, including how those parts get shipped from there to here, and the number of employees working in these factories, the only thing to expect is chaos. We’re experiencing a weird dynamic right now with worldwide stress, but also with a high demand for our products and services.  The scenario is creating an almost panic for our industry to perform.”

What Are Contractors Doing Since Their Equipment Isn’t Available?

HVAC contractors, large and small, whose usual brand of equipment ran out, were forced to go to other stores and find anything they could get their hands on.  That created an even higher demand for equipment from our local suppliers.  So, while the sales were good for them, almost every supplier felt the squeeze, eventually getting to the point where they were out of product, which usually lasts a lot longer.

Another industry professional told me, “At first it seemed like a lot of contractors became extremely frustrated with the lack of inventory, especially since a lot of the jobs were already sold and they needed the equipment quickly.  But as time went on and EVERY supply house was having the same issue, it became apparent to us contractors that it wasn’t because these supply houses weren’t watching their inventory close enough, and restocking accordingly.  It was a bigger problem all around.”

When Will Things Get Back to Normal?

Equipment manufacturers are not and can not give us ETAs as to when equipment will be back to normal levels.  The demand for products and services in this area has outpaced the manufacturer’s ability to build, produce, and ship out inventory.

Some manufacturers are saying October, but that would be if no new setbacks occur from closures caused by another increase in COVID cases.  And in a time where new issues seem to arise from this pandemic every week, and with no dependable vaccine ready to go by the end of 2020, it’s tough to tell when the HVAC equipment shortage will end.

Fortunately, in California, we’re getting close to the end of the hottest time of the year, so local suppliers should have an easier time restocking their shelves as demand goes down.  Winter months are relatively mild around the Sacramento Valley, so we won’t get that high intensity of equipment change-outs experienced in other areas of the world with longer, colder winters.

Stay safe and follow CDC guidelines so we can get through this sooner than later.

Thanks so much for stopping by, and we’ll see you next time.

Don’t Miss Our Video on This Topic:

Which AC System Is The Best?

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One of the most common questions I get as an HVAC contractor in Sacramento is, “Which AC system is the best?” I see a ton of articles online about this topic – many that someone who’s not even in the HVAC industry wrote!  Some compensated blog writer wrote it or gave you a list of top-rated systems.  Systems they’ve never even touched. These bloggers are telling people that nationally recognized economy line systems are better than the systems that are truly going to last you a long time.


Short and sweet, three companies have the best reputation over several decades of manufacturing, in no particular order, they are: 

  • Trane
  • Carrier
  • Lennox 


Now, when I say Trane, I also mean American Standard.  And when I say Carrier, I also mean Bryant.  Lennox is Lennox.  But, American Standard systems are made in the same factories, on the same production lines as Trane systems.  Bryant is made in the same factories, on the same assembly lines as Carrier.  The difference?  The tag is on the side of the unit.  American Standard does have a different shell around the sides of the outdoor AC unit, but that’s it.  I know this because I toured the factory where they make them.  I’ve seen the process.  (And it’s very cool!)

So, the same high voltage contactor that’s in a Carrier is in a Bryant air conditioner.  The same inducer motor on a Carrier is in a Bryant furnace.

But isn’t Carrier more expensive than Bryant? And isn’t Trane more expensive than American Standard? Until now, I noticed that Bryant was a little cheaper, although they were engineered exactly the same.  But now, in 2021, I see a very marginal price difference—the same with American Standard and Trane.  Lennox systems are priced right along with these brands as well.  So if you get different prices from contractors giving you bids, it’s because of that contractor’s overhead or desired profit margins.  Not because one is more expensive than the other to the contractor.

Knowing this the list really looks like this, in no particular order:

  • Trane (or American Standard)
  • Carrier (or Bryant)
  • Lennox


We sell Trane as our premium line and Coleman or Payne as our economy line.  But my goal here is to try to stay as neutral as possible here so you don’t feel like I’m trying to sway you one way or the other.  You’ll hear me talk about some brands being better than others, and I mean no offense to anyone or any manufacturer.

But you’ve got to take this sort of advice from someone who’s installed all of them at one point or another and serviced the equipment out in the field. 


Before I list the rest of the systems,

I want to mention air conditioning systems come fully assembled at the factory and are ready to work. However, it takes experienced technicians to modify the unit per the manufacturer’s instructions to conform to your specific home’s demands.  The last steps of installing it “in the field” and adding whatever additional parts to bring it up to proper building code in your area is up to the contractor you choose.  That’s an important point because buying a Trane, Carrier, or Lennox includes buying it from a professional, detail-oriented, reliable contractor that you trust and are comfortable with bringing it to life.  If someone is going to install it for you, but you can’t find them after the install because they sell systems so cheap they’re out of business, or they simply won’t pick up the phone, that’s not going to help you when you need some follow-up.

You can buy any system, but if the blower settings, gas pressures, static air pressures, high and low voltage wiring, fuse sizes, a precision refrigerant charge, and airflow, water drainage, gas piping, intake air, exhaust system, thermostats, and other safety codes aren’t set up correctly, you’ll find your new system not lasting nearly as long as it could have.  It can be the difference of your system lasting ten years or lasting 20 years.


Other brand names in the field would be considered middle-of-the-road type systems. These names, in no particular order, include:

  • Rheem (or sister brand Ruud)
  • Amana 
  • Day & Night
  • Heil
  • Bosch  

Why are they mid-tier systems?  As a technician, I seem to repair these systems more than the premium names.  The repair parts are available just like others, and the warranties are just as strong.  That’s never been a problem for me.  But, it’s a fact that they break down at some of the most inopportune times.  So just keep that in mind.


Even more brands perennially end up at the bottom of these lists.  In no particular order they are:

  • Goodman
  • Daikin
  • Payne 
  • Coleman 
  • Tempstar 
  • RunTru 
  • York

These have the most challenging time breaking the stigma attached to them.  They carry this stigma because they are the brands installed on newly built homes in middle America.  HVAC contractors will only win their bid to get a large job like a new pre-planned community if they have the lowest bid.  So, they have to use the cheapest equipment they can get their hands on.

You can find most of these cheaper systems online. They sell to whoever will buy them. And, you’ll see the cheapest contractors, home flippers, and DIY’ers buying this equipment and trying to install them themselves. This comes back around to it mattering WHO installs your equipment and not entirely about WHAT equipment you buy.


If the brand you were thinking of isn’t on this list, it could be that here we are talking about your typical unitary or ducted split systems and package units.  Names like Mitsubishi, Fujitsu, Gree, Midea, and others make ductless mini-split systems.  We’ll talk about those in another discussion.

All of the mid-tier and higher brands typically have three levels of systems they offer.  

  • (Entry-level) A single-stage heating and cooling option
  • (High quality) A two-stage option
  • (Most efficient) A variable speed option


The single-stage option has the simplest form of technology, is the lowest in price but the lowest in value.  While they are UL Listed and safe to put in any home, lower-end models have more vulnerabilities than higher-end equipment.  

I can’t really say whether a Trane, Carrier, or Lennox entry-level system is better than the other.  The technology is the same.  Heck, the compressors, which are the heart of the air conditioner, are virtually the same. I can say, for my home, I would feel a lot better installing one of these three instead of the mid-tier or lower levels.  It’s not because I’m an elitist or anything.  The elite products are the higher-end technology variable speed systems.  


Almost every part of these single-stage systems can be repaired with universal parts.  Meaning you don’t necessarily have to go through the distributor to get the replacement part.  Single-stage motors, compressors, control boards, pressure switches, and gas valves are everywhere and readily available.  Very likely even on your technician’s van right now.


Two-stage systems have better technology.  They run more efficiently and control the temperature in your house without fluctuating as much.  The main feature of a two-stage system is that they all typically run at around 70% capacity in the first stage and 100% capacity in the second stage.  These systems will run the majority of the time in the first stage, which is where you start seeing the money savings.  Two-stage systems are great for two-story homes that have two thermostats or zoning.  These systems can be set up to run in the first stage when only one floor is calling for air.  The second stage will only come on when both zones are calling for air.  This is how I have it set up in my house.

I’ll stay with my single stage theme when I say I couldn’t pick which one is best out of the three premium names.  Trane, Carrier, and Lennox are battle-tested and have been for decades in this technology.  I tell people when it comes to a salesman saying, “oh, but our system is an 18 SEER, not 16 or 17 like the other brand.”  I tell my customers not to get too caught up in SEER ratings and focus on the technology.  Any two-stage system is going to outperform a single-stage system.  The minuscule savings you’ll receive by going with an 18 SEER two-stage over a 17 SEER two-stage is trivial.


Two-stage motors and compressors will have to be ordered from the warehouse near your town that distributes your brand of equipment. There aren’t a lot of universal parts available for two-stage systems.  Capacitors, contactors, and some other parts are universal.  But with higher-end equipment, you see safety components like special pressure switches to protect the furnace or air conditioner from damaging itself.  These parts have to come from the factory.  With Trane, Carrier, Lennox all the way “down to” Goodman and York, I’ve never really had a hard time getting these replacement parts.  At the most, we’ve had to wait for 5 to 10 business days for the part to come directly from the manufacturer.  There are always exceptions to this, but, honestly, it would be the same for any brand.


When you start dipping into the most efficient tier of equipment, the variable speed systems, you’ll start seeing some noticeable differences.  As a Trane dealer, it’s hard for me to say this, but Trane and Carrier have sort of fallen behind Lennox.  Bosch also makes a pretty sweet variable speed system.  They even have the first variable speed package unit.

Remember how two-stage systems have a 70% and 100% capacity? These are the most expensive units, with technology that is less bulletproof than two-stage technology. But, if you’re a techy or just like the premium life, variable speed stands out because of the comfort levels it can produce. Variable speed systems can adjust their capacity levels from about 25% to 100% in less than 1% intervals at a time. They maintain even lower temperature swings in the house.  These systems can keep your home to within a half degree of the temperature you want it. 

These are the quietest systems too.  Because they typically run at a slower speed, they require less energy and create less noise with less vibration.  

Lennox claims the top spot as far as SEER ratings go with a 28 SEER system.  Compare that to Trane’s top unit, which is 20 SEER, and Carrier’s 19 SEER version. 

All of these variable speed systems have WiFi capabilities, are communicating systems, and are ultra-quiet.  Lennox and Carrier variable speed systems work with the Amazon Alexa app. Trane doesn’t have that feature as it only works with its Nexia platform.


When it comes time to repair these variable speed systems, only their proprietary parts will work.  With such intricate technology comes priciness and a higher learning curve for who can actually make the repair for you.  Trane, Lennox, Carrier, and other brands with variable speed lines will usually only make these parts available to respected dealers of those brands.  The skill it takes to handle inverter-type systems is next level.


When it comes to deciding which AC systems are the best, you have three systems perennially at the top of the list.  Trane, Carrier, and Lennox.  While each of their single-stage and two-stage systems all pretty much have the same capabilities, efficiencies, and life spans, it’s the higher-tier variable speed systems where you’ll start seeing the differences.  Lennox has pulled away from the field by offering 28 SEER variable speed systems.  

When you start looking for a vehicle, you pretty much have a brand name in mind.  You might get a higher or lower-end model with fewer bells and whistles, but maybe you’ve always felt comfortable driving a GMC truck over a Toyota truck.

Let me know what you think about this in the comments below?  I see a ton of articles online about this topic – many that someone who isn’t even in the HVAC industry wrote.  Some paid blog writer wrote it.  You’ve got to take it from someone who actually installs them and services the equipment out in the field. 

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Thanks so much for reading, and we’ll see you in the next blog.

Where Should HVAC Technicians Wisely Invest Their Money?

Where Should HVAC Techs Invest

Blue-collar workers like HVAC technicians may not be the first people you would think of as savvy stock market investors. As a company owner, I provide our workers with a Simple IRA that acts much like a 401K. We match a certain percentage of their contribution to their retirement account. In that account, they are encouraged to invest their money in a variety of stocks or ETF’s.  These options can help them gain some free money in the form of capital gains.  The stock market has, on average, provided more interest than leaving an employee’s money sitting in their account, gaining no interest — not even the 1% to 3% a traditional bank would generate for their customers.

Buying Shares in Familiar Companies

Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, and Peter Lynch are some of the greatest investors of all time. Their advice when it comes to investing is to invest in what you know.  Should HVAC technicians focus on investing in banks and biotechnology? Probably not. But a technician would have great insider information on the HVAC industry. Trane, Lennox, Carrier, Daiken, Johnson Controls, Honeywell, AAON, Comfort Systems, Watsco, Mitsubishi Electric, and Fujitsu are all very popular names in our industry.

HVAC Equipment Shortages

The pulse of the industry is like second nature to HVAC technicians.  As I write this at the end of a very busy summer and hopefully near the end of the COVID-19 crisis, insiders know there is an unprecedented and vast shortage of HVAC equipment and parts.  Raw materials, control boards, compressors, switches, copper, aluminum, sheet metal, and everything else that goes into an air conditioner or furnace are slow in getting to manufacturers. 

Companies like Trane, Lennox, Carrier, Ruud, Goodman, among others, are being delayed.  Some delays are not necessarily due to temporarily closed factories, worker layoffs, or everything else COVID-19 has brought with it.  Snags in transportation or the receiving docks receiving those deliveries also affect the process.  Delays persist.

How do all these factors affect stock prices now? How will they affect stock prices moving forward into 2021 and 2022? And how is the industry growing in general? These are questions HVAC technicians and other industry experts are much more likely to know the answers to than biotech experts. Therefore, it’s important we blue-collar experts invest in what we know. Should we be investing in pharma stocks that might create the vaccine for the COVID virus?  Not if the only thing we know about it is what we’ve seen on TV.

HVAC Market Demand in 2021

Commercial and industrial HVAC companies can tell you that 2020 saw a significant slowdown in certain sectors of the buildings where they service and replace equipment. Data centers, health care, and warehouses remained a reliable source of work. But retail stores, hospitality, and restaurants suddenly became incredibly soft markets. All the major HVAC manufacturers like Watsco, Johnson Controls, Trane, Carrier, and Lennox expected the softness now seen in the light commercial segment. It will create some pent-up demand going into 2021. That is good for earnings for these publicly traded companies, and who better to gain from it than our own industry experts?

COVID-19 is Inspiring Home Improvements

In an earlier post last month, I discussed what happened to those of us in the residential HVAC market. There’s been a demand for equipment changeouts, unlike anything we have seen. What was happening? Those workers directed to work from home started investing in their homes. Hardware stores, gardeners, construction crews, and HVAC companies all started working harder than ever before! I cannot think of one contractor I have talked to that did not smash sales records this past summer.

The Working From Home Trend

Homeowners found they had more disposable income to work on their homes since vacationing and going out to the movies was not going to be happening anytime soon. When offices begin opening again, the commercial sector will see a rise in sales. That is good for stock owners. I think a little over half of those working from home will remain working from home. And they will continue sprucing up their homes to ensure a comfortable workspace. But we as HVAC technicians already know that. Therefore, investing our hard-earned retirement money in something we know follows the advice of a few of the greatest investors of all time:  investing in what we know.

Getting Started

Give it a shot! You don’t have to be a super slick Wall Street investor to be invited to the party. Apps on your phone will let you buy shares of stock one at a time. I personally have my IRA and another account on Robinhood, which takes no extra fees for me to invest my money through them. If I only have a hundred dollars to throw into my account that week, I can purchase $100 of a $275 share of Lennox. It all builds up over time, and the younger you start, the sooner you will have enough money in your retirement fund to support you when your knees finally go out.

Invest in Companies You Know

Instead of letting your money sit in an account making no money beyond what you put in there, invest in some of these companies, companies you already know well enough to know that they make good profits every year. This industry will only increase in size every year due to technology upgrades, population growth, and new homes being built further out into suburbia, to name a few.

Thanks so much for stopping by and we’ll see you on the next blog.